When I approach a fantasy draft, I have many strategies in mind, most of which need adaptations throughout the selection process. Depending on the draft trends, I may forced to adjust my gameplan to maximize my success. Good draftees need to be versatile on draft day. But the part of my strategy that remains static, is my desire to draft what I like to call “comeback guys.” Players that are still in their prime in terms of age and who have produced monster fantasy seasons in the past, but not the past season. I like to pinpoint both pitchers and hitters during a draft that were low on the stat chart the immediate year prior, and attempt to draft these guys at a bargain value.
The philosophy sounds obvious. Many of you may be thinking, Salz, okay post something we don’t know. But already this year are several examples of players that were drafted much lower than they should have been simply because they had an off year last year. I feel many owners do not take advantage of this opportunity, and simply look right past guys that have proven themselves in the past to be fantasy giants. I try to take advantage of this every year, and I believe it to be one of the reasons I’m usually in the thick of the race come August.
The downside is the uncertainty factor. Most owners feel much more comfortable plugging a last-season statistical giant into their OF spots as opposed to a guy who put up 45HR and 120RBI TWO years ago. For example, Matt Holliday was a first round pick in virtually every draft this year. His 2007 numbers were triple crown worthy and he is young with a sky-is-the-limit upside. At the same time, Manny Ramirez generated a lackluster 2007 platter, plagued with injuries and stunted power. Naturally, Ramirez drops on owners’ fantasy forcasts, Holliday jumped to the top, and in the end Holliday was being drafted much higher than Ramirez, probably two or three rounds higher as he was in my league.
Currently, Manny is ranked 12 spots higher than Holliday in Yahoo roto leagues, with higher numbers in all offensive categories except stolen bases. In retrospect, I never would have advocated to draft Manny over Holliday, nor would I have advised to take Manny in the first or maybe even second round. On the exterior, he looked as if he was in the decline and fantasy owners may never once again enjoy the luxury of Manny numbers pre-2006. But looking at his 6 April bombs, mid-300 average, and 20 RBI, I’m thinking Manny is back and ready to wreck havoc on the AL. That BoSox line-up is loaded so you know he’s going to get pitches to hit. As long as he is allowed to keep his bag of seeds and water bottle in his back pocket as he grazes left-field, fantasy owners may be in for a big and tasty ”comeback guy” treat.
Early Season “Comeback Hitters”
Derrek Lee (Chi, 1B) – I got to holla at our boy DLee and put him first on this list. He is the epitome of a “comeback guy” as of right now. After Lee’s gigantic 2005 campaign, he was a highly coveted first-round commodity for all fantasy owners. The big injury in ‘06 negated his ”savior” status, and he came back down to earth last season with his unsatisfying .317, 22 and 82. I mentioned in an earlier post that these numbers are solid, but from DLee, we expect so much more after his dirty 2005 tirade. So what happens? Owners forget about the 2005 DLee, assume his 45HR capabilities no longer exist, and push him down on the draft board. Nieve owners overlook the fact that DLee’s now fully recovered, and last season he still felt the lingering effects of a wrist injury, a body part so crucial to the formulation of the power swing. Mix him into a very potent Cubbie line-up, and Lee is going to kill again and make owners wished they capitalized on this “comeback guy” by drafting him much later than he deserved. Derrek is the 4th best overall fantasy player right now, and it should stay that way for the remainder of ’08.
Miguel Tejada (Hou, SS) – I’ll admit, I thought Tejada was over the hill and no longer the guy I want representing half of my middle infield. Add the two extra years he snuck past customs and the steroid allegations, you’re looking at a deteriorating middle-infielder who must rely on speed, agility, and quickness to play his part. So Tejada is a 33 year-old, possible steroid user who just got moved to the pitcher-favored National League. Why take him? Last season, Tejada’s 18HR and 81RBI were his lowest power totals since 1999, and his 7 year-long Iron Man streak was finally snapped. You could make a case for 10 shortstops that should have been drafted over Tejada. Now, he trails only Hanley Ramirez and Rafael Furcal in overall fantasy production (.345 average, 44 runs produced). Judos (Spanish for Kudos) to you Senor Tejada for making us doubters, once again believers. Even if we’ll never believe another word you say.
Rafael Furcal (LAD, SS) – Like his counterpart Mr. Tejada, Furcal is also bouncing back nicely after his worst offensive year since 2002. Furcal, at age 30, is not neccessarily old, but for a guy who makes a fantasy impact because of his speed, graduating from his 20s doesn’t add appeal for owners. After a semi-injury plagued 2007, Furcal has taken the diamond back with authority by already logging half of his 2007 HR total (3) and scoring a whopping 26 runs in 27 games. He is on pace to steal about 40 bags, a feat he hasn’t accomplished since 2005. So the fiery shortstop and his middle-aged .381 average look very promising to fantasy owners that probably got him a couple rounds later than they should have. A buddy of mine looks to draft players in a contract year because they’re more prone to play balls out when they have an incentive like money up in their faces. My guy was right on target when he drafted Furcal and his expiring contract in the 7th round.
Taking the Mound With Purpose…Again
Cliff Lee (Cle, SP) - Talk about a 180. Actually, I mean a 360. This Cleveland southpaw sparked the interests of fantasy owners when he tallied 14 wins in his first big league season, then logged 18 wins and a 3.79 ERA in 2005. Although down a tad, his 14 wins and 4.40 ERA in 2006 was a nice fix for owners in more competitive leagues. Overall, Cliff Lee has significant fantasy value up until last year when he got hurt then never got it going all year. After being sent down the minors, and barely winning the 5th spot in the Indians rotation this spring, Lee is now amid fantasy stardom. The number one ranked pitcher in Yahoo roto leagues, Lee just had his 27 consecutive scoreless inning streak broken Wednesday night and maintains a MLB-best .96 ERA. The list goes on. 5-0, .56 WHIP, only 2 walks in 37.2 innings, 32 K. Cliff Lee has been straight up nasty this April. It fact, he has been as close to perfect as you can get. Not bad for a guy who may have gone undrafted in many leagues.
Ervin Santana (LAA, SP) - Not entirely a guy who has completely “done it so well before, dropped off the map, and has come back,” but Santana is on the verge of a breakout year that many experts expected last season. Still just a young sprat at 25, Santana is known for his electric slide-piece and mid-90s fastball. His volatile arsenal has never been the issue, but putting it all together consistently has been troublesome for the 4th best overall Yahoo fantasy pitcher. Santana’s notable 2006 campaign (16 wins, 4.28 ERA) skyrocketed his fantasy value for 2007, but his numbers, not his deuce, dropped off the table last season (7-14 record, 5.76 ERA). Night and day. This year, however, the sun has been shining brightly on his 5-0 record, 2.48 ERA and dazzling .98 WHIP. Maybe this year?
Mariano Rivera (NYY, CP) - Yahoo experts had Rivera ranked among second and third tier closers this preseason because they recognized his declining fantasy numbers in 2007. In fact, Rivera posted his worst ERA, WHIP and Batting Average Against since he landed the Yankee closer gig in 1997. Supplement his falling numbers with his age (39) and low 2007 save count (30) and it is reasonable to have Rivera stationed lower on the draft totum pole. But I could smell Rivera’s comeback stench from a mile away. This IS still Mariano Rivera, and I am not entirely shocked to see him back as the 2nd ranked closer. He hasn’t blown a save, let alone yielded a single run. His .36 WHIP is absurd and he is striking out one per inning. Do what you do Mariano, I didn’t forget.
So keep an eye on those guys who did it once, and can do it again. Especially next year before you draft. It’s the difference between 1st and 4th place. If you can find the currently underrated, but once highly-rated players who will produce like the first and second rounders, you are most likely going to succeed. It’s been working for me this year.
On the Horizon
First, the Swag Shop will be opening up Tuesday early afternoon well before the Cubbies’ road battle with Cincinatti. Come take a look and see what the specials are for the week.
Second, I am dominating my fantasy league right now. It is sweet. I feel like I have too many good guys. Just ask Dan and Ken, I am beating them both.
Third, as a fantasy author (notice how I didn’t say expert. I’ll wait til Yahoo or ESPN sign me on their staff) I feel like making a couple of predictions. I would like to elect two players, one pitcher and one hitter, as my fantasy gems for the upcoming month of May.
Nick Markakis from Baltimore is about to blow up. The O’s have been playing well, and this kid is the heart and soul of the club. Watch him creep into the top 25 by dropping bombs, lifting bags, and increasing his average to over .300.
Mark Buehrle, (I know he’s a southsider, but I’m no hater) one of the most patient lefties in the league, will bounce back from his tough start and get his ERA back down into the 3’s by the end of May. After a quality start last week, and 8 strong innings tonight, Buehrle looks to be settling down and finding his command. Look for 3 or 4 more solid starts throughout May, once again bringing him back to fantasyland.
See you at the Shop next week.
- —Salz
Posted by csalzman3031 
