Out of the Gates – April in Review (and March 31 too)

The Cubs improved significantly on last years 10-14 start to open the 2008 season 17-10. The Cub hitters have carried the club why the pitching staff (with a few exceptional exceptions) has struggled. The good news is that even though three fifths of the starting rotation, and everyone out of the pen except Carlos Marmol has struggled at times, there are still ten teams that have given up more runs than the Cubs. The most impressive fact about this Cubs team so far is that they have yet to lose three consecutive games.

At the plate the Cubs have been a more patient than they have in the past. Nine of the Cubs have an OBP over .350. Overall, the Cubs have the N.L.’s top batting average (.286), OBP (.375), runs (171), hits (.279), and R.B.I. (161). They are second in Slugging Pecentage (.452), and doubles (62). Conversely their pitching staff is ranked in the middle of the pack for every major stat.

In the first month and a day of the season the Cubs have gone from the “lovable losers,” to loving the losers. With a 12-5 record against teams that are under .500 the Cubs have done what they are supposed to do against the bad teams. Also encouraging about those victories is the fact that the Houston Astros would be an even .500 not counting their record against the Cubs; and the Pittsburgh Pirates would be one game over .500 ignoring their six defeats at the hands of the boys in blue. The Cubs split their games with teams over .500 thanks mostly to a 2 game sweep of the New York Mets. Other than that short series the Cubs were 2-3 overall against the Milwaukee Brewers and the 1-2 against the fighting Phillies of Philadelphia. The Cubs’ sub-.500 record against the Brewers is discouraging because the two teams are expected to fight it out for the division all summer.

The Good

The Cubs’ offense has really clicked especially without Alfonso Soriano. Reed Johnson, was hitting .296 at the end of April and was on-basing at .379 mostly out of the lead-off spot since Soriano went down. Ryan Theriot got off to a hot start hitting .340/.415, he also has 6 doubles, a triple, and a homer through the first month. Aramis Ramirez started slow unable to get his batting average above .250 until April 20; however he is hitting .296 overall and his OBP (.417 now) did not drop below .300 after April second, thanks to 18 BB, and 4 HBP. Ramirez also hit 6 home runs and 9 doubles and 22 R.B.I. Derrek Lee looks to be back to his 2005 form hitting .371/.446 and 8 HR, 9 2B, 1 3B, and 23 R.B.I., Lee also has played his typical Gold-Glove defense. Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome has managed to exceed expectations at .305/.416, 8 2B, 2 3B, 1HR. Fukudome has been credited with helping to change the teams approach at the plate. He has been near or at the top of pitches per plate appearance (4.52) all year and has taken 19 walks on the young season. The most impressive Cub at the plate so far has been Geovany Soto. After a strong end to last season the rookie catcher has picked up right where he left off hitting .341/.424 with 8 2B, 13B, and 5 HR. His most impressive stat however is his 20 R.B.I., the last 6 of which came on April 30 thanks to a pair of 3-run home runs.

On the mound Carlos Zambrano went 4-1 with a 2.21 E.R.A. allowing less than a hit an inning. Big Z appears to have fixed the control problem that has plagued him in the past, so far he has struck out 32 batters and walked only 9. Carlos Marmol has also been dominant so far this year with a 1.56 E.R.A. With 14 appearances through the end of the month Marmol boasts a 23/5 K/BB ratio, and is 2/2 in his limited save opportunities. Jon Leiber has been strong in long relief, saving the rest of the pen when some of the starters struggled early in the season pitching a combined 9.1 innings in his first 3 outings. Leiber has 2.30 E.R.A., and only 2 walks, both of which came April 7, in Pittsburgh. The biggest good surprise of the season for the Cubs has been Ryan Dempster. Demps, has a 4-0 record (the Cubs are 5-1 in games he starts) with a 3.60 E.R.A. The converted closer has 22 strike outs but has walked 19 batters. If Dempster continues to walk hitters he may see his E.R.A. begin to rise.

The Bad

The left-handed starters and Bob Howry. Ted Lilly has been nowhere near the pitcher he was last year. The good news is that his 6.46 E.R.A. is his worst since his first year (7.61) so it is safe to assume that he will begin to move toward his career E.R.A. of 4.51even if he doesn’t get to last years 3.83. Lilly’s problems stem from a slight loss in velocity on his fastball which has made all of his pitches more hittable to the tune of 33 hits and 13 walks through 30.2 innings. Rich Hill has also struggled so far, though not as bad as Lilly. Hill’s 3.79 E.R.A. is not bad at all, however he has thrown a lot of pitches and struggled with his control. He has walked 14 batters through his 19 innings, including a 4 walk, 72 pitch outing in Pittsburgh on April 10. Howry has an 8.10 E.R.A. on the season and has given up 2 runs in 5 of his 14 appearances. Howry is averaging over 18 pitches an outing and has given up 11runs in 12.1 innings. Howry is a fastball pitcher to the point that he throws it almost exclusively, like Lilly, Howry’s velocity is down which is contributing to his slow start.

The Cubs have had little bad at the plate, Felix Pie and Soriano are the only players who have struggled. Pie was a question mark coming into this season, his early struggles combined with Johnson’s strong play has limited Pie to only 50 plate appearences with a .205 average. His 14 strike outs mean he is striking out 28% of the time. Since he has been in the bigs Manager Lou Pinella and his coaching staff have worked to shorten Pie’s swing however the work has yet to pay off. Pie’s swing prevents him from hitting anything off speed or high fastballs with any regularity. With Pie’s considerable speed it would be nice to see him attempt to bunt for a hit but he seems to be intent on being a power hitter. Look for Pie to struggle until he figures out how to shorten his swing and/or use his speed to his advantage.

Soriano’s struggles are not surprising and it is still a little early to be concerned. Just like last year he missed some time in mid-April (last year he missed a week when he left a game on April 16th, this year he went on the 15 day DL on April 16th) and just like last year he was struggling before getting hurt. Prior to the injury in 2007 the Fonse was hitting .245 thanks in part to a 1-2 day in the game he was injured. He had only 1 multi-hit game, 2 multi-strikeout games, and had yet to hit a home run. The biggest problem with his struggles is that he is leading off. The debate on where to bat Soriano has gone on since his arrival in Chicago. The problem with moving him down in the order is the way that he has struggle when not leading off. Here are his numbers based where he is batting in the order:

Line-up spot	At-Bats	Plate App.	BA	OBP	PA/HR	AB/K	PA/BB
1st	2646	2860	.293	.339	18.30	4.59	15.29
2nd-6th	1318	1421	.257	.309	21.50	4.78	17.54
7th-8th	292	300	.304	.343	42.86	4.94	33.33

The numbers show that moving Soriano down is a risky proposisiton, the farther down he bats the less power he has and the less he walks. They do suggest however that if Lou does decided to move him down the Cubs would be best served by batting him seventh or eighth in the line-up. When batting towards the bottom his BA and OBP are better than any other spot in the line-up. While his power numbers where down significantly when batting low in the order he accumulated most of his At-Bats during his rookie year when he hit only 18 home runs.
Overall

The Cubs are off to a strong start at 17-10, much better than last years start. The players who are struggling are generally slow starters and should get back on track over the next month or two. Right now the Cubs’ bats are carrying the team but the pitching needs to step up if the hot start is to be continued.

Cub of the Month: Geovany Soto – Besides his .341 BA, .424 OBP, 5 HR, and 20 R.B.I.; Soto has thrown out 36.8% of runners attempting to steal and allowed only 1 passed ball.